February's 24-Month Outlook for Global Project Kickoffs Tops $7.4 Trillion
Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Integrated Platform is tracking more than $7.42 trillion in worldwide projects in February that are scheduled to kick off construction over the next 24 months. This is a 1% increase from January's kickoff outlook of $7.36 trillion.
Making up this amount are more than 101,500 projects across the globe, which are scheduled to begin construction from February this year through January 2020. And while not all of the projects will kick off as planned (Industrial Info ranks the probability of each project moving forward as planned in the high, medium or low categories), this robust outlook provides high-level visibility into where spending will be concentrated globally over the next two years.
By total investment value (TIV), the Power Industry is the leading spender, with more than $3.09 trillion in planned kickoffs, followed by Metals & Minerals at $1.18 trillion, and Industrial Manufacturing at $837 billion.
With the Power Industry being such a tremendous portion of the outlook at more than $3 trillion, spending by Fuel Type breaks that massive total down a bit more. Natural Gas leads the projections:
- Natural gas: 8,748 projects valued at $820.9 billion
- Wind: 5,803 projects valued at $736.6 billion
- Hydro: 6,383 projects valued at $650.9 billion
- Coal: 4,556 projects valued at $608 billion
- Solar: 4,641 projects valued at $388.3 billion
- Nuclear: 426 projects valued at $219.2 billion
Project spending trends look to be concentrated in Asia at $3.88 trillion, which accounts for more than 50% of the total. North America's spending comes in second at $1.3 trillion, and Europe arrives in third at $823 billion.
When looking at these totals by country, China has the largest amount of kickoffs forecasted at $1.89 trillion, followed by the U.S. at $870 billion. While Industrial Info's GMI Platform tracks projects in 186 countries, more than 75% of the outlook is concentrated in the top 20 countries.
Capital ($7.35 trillion) versus maintenance ($82 billion) spending for the 24-month February outlook remains at a consistent ratio of 99% to 1%, with little change from previous months.
Of the $7.35 trillion TIV planned for capital kickoffs over the next 24 months, $1.34 trillion (18%) of the spending has been approved and is moving forward in the funding, engineering and construction phases, while $6.01 trillion (82%) remains in the proposal phase.
One of the largest potential kickoffs involves a $29 billion solar cell factory in Shandong, China by Hanergy Holding Group Company Limited. The probability assessment of the project's construction is ranked as medium (70-80% probability of moving forward), with final investment decision expected by Q2 2018. For more information, see Industrial Info's project report.
IIR'S GMI Platform provides an in-depth outlook of the coming kickoffs in industrial spending worldwide over the next 24 months, with a TIV of $7.42 trillion. Current global construction activity is as follows:
- The value of activity currently in the construction phase is $2.56 trillion worldwide. Of this, $1.44 trillion is in Asia and $452 billion is in North America.
- The top three industries leading active construction phase projects this month are: Power ($1.11 trillion), Industrial Manufacturing ($406 billion), and Metals & Minerals ($326 billion).
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