GMI Reveals Robust 24-Month Kickoff Outlook for Asia Power and Industrials
Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Integrated Platform is tracking more than $3.89 trillion in projects this month in Asia that are slated to kick off construction over the next 24 months, a slight increase from the 24-month January outlook of $3.88 trillion.
There are more than 44,000 projects in Asia that make up this $3.89 trillion total, which are scheduled to begin construction from February of this year through January 2020. Asia continues to dominate global spending, accounting for more than 52% of the global kickoff outlook of $7.42 trillion.
By total investment value (TIV), the Power Industry is the leading spender, with more than $1.71 trillion in planned kickoffs, followed by Metals & Minerals at $606 billion, and Chemical Processing at $516 billion. Not all of the projects will kick off as planned; Industrial Info ranks the probability of each project moving forward as planned in either high, medium or low categories.
A breakdown of the $1.71 trillion in the asia power industry kickoffs reveals that the top five fuel types in Asia are coal ($493 billion), hydro ($443 billion), wind ($331 billion), natural gas ($246 billion) and solar ($168 billion). This is in sharp contrast to the top five fuel types globally, which are natural gas, wind, hydro, coal and solar.
Project spending trends will be concentrated geographically in the East Asia market region at almost $2.09 trillion, followed by the South Asia market region at nearly $741 billion.
The majority of the projects in the East Asia region will occur in China, which is projected at over $1.94 trillion. The South Asia region is carried in large part by India, with a kickoff outlook of $544 billion.
One of the largest potential kickoffs involves a $27.1 billion crude oil and natural gas processing plant by Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) (San Ramon, California) in Atyrau, Kazakhstan. Chevron's plans for this facility include a processing capacity of 260,000 BBL/d of crude petroleum and 960 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas. Industrial Info ranks the project as having a high probability (81-99%) of moving forward as planned. The project is currently in the late engineering stage, with construction expected to start this year and completion to take place in 2022. For more information, see Industrial Info's project report.
Capital ($3.86 trillion) versus maintenance ($23 billion) spending for the February 24-month outlook remains at a steady ratio of 99% to 1% in Asia, with little change from previous months.
Of the $3.86 trillion TIV planned for capital kickoffs over the next 24 months, $916 billion (24%) of the spending has been approved and is moving forward in the funding, engineering and construction phases, while $2.95 trillion (76%) remains in the planning phases.
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