In IIR's weekly oil report, refinery-throughput statistics for the week that ended February 23 were mostly unchanged for the U.S crude oil market as a whole. As always, though, making full sense of the statistics requires a deeper dive into PADD data. The most notable figure for this week came from PADD 2, where runs slipped 124,000 barrels per day (BBL/d). Refinery runs for the Gulf Coast, East Coast and West Coast had improved that week.

  • The drop in Midwest crude runs can be attributed to the beginning of the planned refinery turnaround schedule at HollyFrontier’s West Tulsa crude oil refinery. In the coming weeks, PADD 2 will get a boost from ExxonMobil’s Joliet refinery restart, but will face downward pressure from the beginning of work at Phillips 66’s Wood River refinery.
  • In PADD 3, a brief decrease in turnaround activity allowed for higher crude runs. However, our forecasted CDU turnaround numbers for the week of March 2 have increased when compared to this time last week. The expectation is now for a drop in next week’s crude run number before two weeks of improvement.
  • In PADD 1, Girard Point brought a reformer back online that perhaps allowed for higher overall refinery utilization. But, Phillips 66’s Bayway FCCU and alky unit remain offline, which will keep rates low for five to six weeks. Also, United Refining’s Warren refinery (70,000 BBL/d) will kick off six weeks of planned work starting March 1. The outlook on the East Coast is weak through the end of April.
  • PADD 5 crude runs again improved due to decreasing turnaround activity. By this time next week, Andeavor’s Carson oil refinery will have restarted, which should allow for a significant jump in West Coast runs through March. Planned work at BP’s Cherry Point facility will provide a road block to elevated runs moving into the summer season.
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